The graph above shows confirmed COVID-19 cases in Mainland China plotted over time.
Note that this is an overly simplistic model, especially later in the epidemic, and so you may see that it does not fit the data so far, and will likely not make accurate predictions for the future, especially if behaviour has changed.
This curve shows the exponential function that best models the current data . Click the button below to extend this exponential curve into the future.
(Judge for yourself if this exponential model looks reasonable, it may not if control measures have improved over this timecourse)
Important note: This projection assumes that we do not change our behaviour or introduce additional measures to control the virus. We can avert this scenario, by washing our hands, restricting travel, isolating suspected cases, and cancelling large gatherings.